The Dictator's Handbook [A Review]
Recently finished the book The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Overall, I enjoyed the read.
(Note that CGP Grey's Rules for Rulers and Death and Dynasties videos are based off of this book. Go watch them!)
This book essentially revisits and reviews politics through the lens of self-interest. Notably, the book argues that "nations" don't undertake actions, rulers do. In that way, it's not the "US" pressuring "China" to do [X] but rather Trump pressuring Xi [X]. Also, this book contends that there really is no "good-doing" in politics - every happening is usually always a calculated political move by someone to achieve some goal.
So the book is quite cynical. But it is also pretty enlightening in a sense - behaviors I used to think contradictory now seem 'obvious' and maybe even rational in a sense, and this book definitely cleared up some of the chaos of the politics world for me. Unfortunately, as with most social science books, the evidence used to support claims is not exactly bulletproof; lots of the authors' claims rely on a few real-world examples and only a small set of data points - and while the conclusions they draw sure seem to be proactive and fitting to the situation, interpreted a different way, it's possible that some other theory could be equally as plausible.
As such, the true benefit (for me) of this book is the exposure to this book's new (and cynical) perspective given by this book on politics; the views in this book are radically different from the status quo and make it a worthwhile read for those looking to understand maybe a little more about politics. At the very least, it's another tool in the arsenal that can be used to explain weird political behaviors.
Thus, an 8.5/10.
Notes from the book (for me mostly):
- (xxii) - Nations don't exist, it's all person-by-person - it's not North Korea decided to do [x], it's Kim Jong Un decided to do [x].
- (1) - No one governs alone. Aka, every ruler needs to pay other people to do stuff for them since they can't do everything.
- (5) - (The concept of Interchangeables, Influentials, and Essentials)
- (17) - The '5 rules' for power - Keep your winning coalition as small as possible, Keep your nominal selectorate as large as possible, Control the flow of revenue, Pay your key supporters just enough to keep them loyal, Don't take money out of your supporter's pockets to make the people's lives better.
- (ch 1) - On Samuel Doe and his ruling, Liberia, and successful revolutions.
- (ch 2) - basically CGP Grey's video on dynasties, aka the importance of heirs and successors in keeping rule, as well as the phrase "keep the money flowing"
- (43) - "Democracy is an arms race for ideas".
- (ch 3) - power, money, election rigging. Also voting dynamics and coalition reshuffling as ways to retain power once first obtained.
- (ch 4) - How to get money? Borrow. As much as possible. Ruin the long-term for short-term benefits. Also oil, taxes, and ore are great ways to get money.
- (ch 4) - Arguments against debt reduction for autocracies; democracies are usually on their way to crushing their debt if they borrowed too much, while giving autocracies debt reductions really only leads them to borrow more money (for more short-term payouts). In short, debt reduction doesn't do its aim - to help the bad become good.
- (ch 5) - Allocating shit (public rewards)
- (110) - by the way, universities aren't sanctified; they're also ruled like autocracies.
- -> examination of public goods and disaster response as a "metric" to evaluate how autocratic a country is
- (ch 6) - Corruption!! (private rewards)
- (135) - In autocracies, the private reward is usually money. In democracies, the reward is beneficial policy (farming subsidies for farmers, medicaid benefits for the elderly).
- (148) - "Pretty much all of us are greedy [for something]" - facts?
- (ch 7) - Foreign aid to autocratic states is a payoff/bribe. Foreign aid to democratic states might be actual aid in that it helps people.
- Aid -> buying policy/goals from other countries
- (190) - Escrow as a solution to the aid game; aid is given to the country AFTER [x] happens, not before.
- (193) - Democracies need autocracies - Paying off autocracies is a cheap way to get influence at the global level.
- Protests are crushed by being mean ~ Also, disasters can sometimes clump people together and serve as a gathering ground for protest
- (223) - [some recommendations on how to keep "bad" dictators out of power - don't relieve their debt, turn off funds if they do anything suspicious, give money only when changes are implemented]
- (ch 9) - war. (This was an interesting chapter for me.)
- Sun Tzu's book (The Art of War) - good principles for an autocratic government when it goes to war. Not as good for democracies when they plan out war.
- (234) - Essentially, Autocrats only fight if winning is easy; otherwise, they just kinda give up. The military in autocratic countries is more there to combat insurgency and protect the ruling rather than to conquer and expand.
- (234) - Democracies don't like fighting so will try to negotiate (see Appeasement) but otherwise when they do fight they fight to the end. Also, they usually only fight when victory is assured.
- (237) - "Foreign aid buys policy concessions, war imposes them."
- (243) - Analysis of why Ethopia shelled its own troops/weapons at the battle of Afabet (03/1988)
- (248) - Democracy overseas is a great idea in principle but is costly af; dems would rather force other states to align with them than tolerate a democracy that holds an opposing view from them (see the US's coups where we displayed a democracy and turned it autocratic so the person in power would align with us)
- (ch 10) - The "good reason" for doing something vs the real reason.
- (265) - smol differences in districting and voting can have big implications.
- Ultimately, for democracies, there exists a tension between what we (the democracy) want and what is "good" in the world (more democratic states) - even though spreading democracy abroad is great and all, if that democracy doesn't align with us, it's out.